A trier is a favorite of everyone, especially when it’s time to put down your readies. For punters, there’s nothing worse than realizing that their selection wasn’t correct and that they haven’t had a fair chance to win.
The increased transparency of https://k8viva.com/giong-ga-choi/ exchanges and blanket television coverage have raised awareness about the non-trier issue in horse racing. However, punters who are involved in football should also be vigilant. The recent match-fixing scandal in Germany, which involved referee Robert Hoyzer and ongoing investigations into irregular betting patterns on obscure European matches, shows that things are not going well in football.
The consistency of results in larger leagues, especially England, shows that punters have no reason to be discouraged. As in horse racing, the main problem lies in the margins in matches or races that are not under the full media spotlight. Skulduggery is less likely than it to raise suspicion.
My research shows that the non-trier issue can rear its ugly head at the end of a season in major leagues as well. Most leagues have enough competition to keep them on the cutting edge in the fight for the championships, European places and safety from relegation.
However, in some cases, teams may have nothing left to lose in the last weeks of the season. This is where problems can occur.
Three types of matches are featured on the last weekend of a league season:
1. Matches between teams that have nothing to lose.
2. Matches between teams that have something to lose.
3. Matches between a team with something to lose and a team with nothing to lose.
Out Of Focus
It is impossible to take either team’s commitment in the first category as a given. Therefore, the best strategy for betting towards the end of the season would be to concentrate on the categories two and three.
You should use your normal methods to evaluate matches in the second category. (Anybody who doesn’t know needs to read our football betting articles on inside-edge-mag.co.uk – Ed), but the best betting opportunities often lie in category three, where there’s always the potential for a ‘non-trier’.
This does not mean that there is anything wrong in these games. However, it can be a game-changing moment for a team in a competitive league like the English Premiership.
This drop in focus could be due to many factors, including the widespread belief that some players are on their holiday before the season ends. A player with an injury may find it easier to rest once the team has lost all their games. No matter what the reason, the results of the article at the bottom show that a team that has something to lose is more likely than a team without anything to win.
The top three English divisions as well as the major European leagues (Spanish Liga and German Bundesliga) have a winning rate of between 50-60% and 20-30% respectively. This is compared to a match with no points. Although the stats may vary from one year to another and from league to league, they are generally consistent.
While it is a matter of contention that these figures provide conclusive proof that the non-trier effect is true, there is one key piece of evidence that supports my conclusion. We would expect higher win rates among the top-placed teams than the ones struggling to avoid relegation if there were no correlation between results and the need for points. This is what happened throughout the season. The win rate for teams trying to avoid relegation in these matches is almost equal to the win rate for teams at the top of a table, who are seeking titles, European places, or play-off slots.
Fight to survive
The English Premiership has had a 55% win rate over the five previous seasons. This is despite teams having something to play for. This figure doesn’t change irrespective of whether the team is in either the top six or bottom six.
It’s a similar story in other leagues, though the win rate of relegation-threatened teams in such matches does tend to be slightly lower overall than that achieved by teams near the top of the table.
These stats are not enough to offer a great betting opportunity. These stats are not enough to make a good betting opportunity. However, there are ways to improve these numbers.
Let’s first look at the whole picture. If the average odds were evens, a 55% win rate would be a nice profit margin. However, this is unlikely in matches where each team has something to lose.
If you take the games that fell under this category in the featured leagues last season, a level-stakes wager on all teams with something to lose would have resulted in a small loss. This is due in part to the lower than average win rate of these teams last season, but it’s also due to the reduced odds that punters accept on such teams.
How to beat odds
While most bookmakers take into account the “nothing to lose for” syndrome when pricing end-of season matches, a few slip by the net. You can spot these matches easily if you are good at making your own matchbooks. Otherwise, it will be difficult to make a profit backing blind teams that have something to play for.
Contrary to popular belief, backing these teams is a good idea as they will have artificially high odds of winning. The lower win rates of these teams make this argument not valid. As mentioned earlier, the problem for punters is to determine if these teams will try hard enough. The evidence suggests that they won’t.
So how can we beat the odds? A little bit more digging into statistics will reveal more details about the common assumptions made about the end-of-season matches.
The league champions’ late-season records are quite interesting, starting at the top. It is clear that champions have a tendency to let go of the accelerator once they have arithmetically secured their title. For example, last season saw the Spanish and German champions confirmed with two games left – Valencia and Werder Bremen were the winners respectively, but they quickly lost their final two games.
This is not an isolated case. Manchester United lost their three previous games and took the title. However, they had won four consecutive games when they were in the same place the previous season.
However, their track record as champions indicates that they are more likely to relax once the race has been won. The win rate of champions in the leagues studied here is usually higher than 60%.
After the title was won, the average win rate dropped to 57% in the five previous seasons. The fall is even more dramatic when they play a team with something on the line – their win rate drops to 45%.
An obscene amount of profit
It’s worthwhile to oppose already-crowned champions. This approach yielded a 24% profit at level stakes last season in the leagues shown here. If you focused on games in which the opponent team still has something to play for, your strike rate would have been 100% and your profit would have been a staggering 125% to level stakes.
Be aware of any factors that could cause champions to lose their cool – Arsenal was last season’s Premiership champions and had four games left. However, they wanted to preserve their unbeaten record. However, they did it with a mere 50% win rate in the last four games (two wins and two draws).
Another factor is when a lower-division team chases a landmark like 100 points. In 2003, Wigan Athletic reached three figures in old Division Two with two wins, a draw and three draws, even though they were already champions.
It’s not hard to conclude that champions tend to relax once they have nothing to lose. The reality is much more complex.
The leagues that were analysed have a 23% win ratio once they are mathematically dead. This is close to what you would expect from relegation zone teams over the course if the season. They don’t collapse once all hope has gone.
Relegated teams have an impressive home record in the last weeks of the season. They have an average split of wins, draws, and losses at home. In no league does the number of home defeats exceed the total wins and draws. Relegated teams are worth keeping an eye on the Asian handicap at their home. They’ll rarely, or ever, give up a start to their rivals.
They perform poorly away from home. They are often considered to be a loss leader in away matches, whereas teams with more to play for are usually victorious. Their match loss rate is 70%. In the last five seasons, they have not won a single fixture in top leagues in France and England.
The 70% loss rate is equal to the odds of their opponents being at the 2/5 or 4/9 mark. Although the bookies tend to be stingy with such teams, you might still make a profit if you back against the relegated teams. These games can be profitable if you are more selective about what odds you are willing to accept (e.g., no less than 1/2).
Be cautious with middle-of-the table teams. The stats suggest that punters can trust sides fighting for top places and battling against relegation. However, teams stuck in the middle of the table for the final few games of the season are unlikely to make it. There is no incentive for them to move up or fear of falling down.
The last word
The leagues analysed here show that the win rate for mid-table teams in the final games is not too bad at 33%. This is roughly in line with their overall season record.
However, the picture doesn’t look so good when you narrow it down to games against teams that still have something to play for. The win rate for safe mid-table teams drops to 26%, while their loss rate rises to 49% (from 41% overall).
End-of-season betting is ultimately determined by the available odds. It’s difficult to price these games and it’s not possible to establish hard-and-fast rules for when or what odds you should accept. It is crucial to understand the underlying statistics, as end-of season games don’t follow the usual rules of form. In many cases, they are a law unto their own. One golden rule: make sure you understand what your selection will look like.